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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-03-16T13:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-03-16T13:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19461/-1
CME Note: Filament eruption begins around 2022-03-16T12:35Z and is seen well in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 and STEREO A EUVI 195 in the NE quadrant. Following this, brightening and an associated EUV wave is visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 and SDO AIA 193. Post eruptive arcades are then visible in SDO AIA 171 and 193 at 13:24Z. Arrival Note: Gradual field amplification accompanied by flux rope and pileup. Field amplitude only exceeds 10 nT for one data point at 2022-03-20T07:00Z, and there is no clear sudden shock. Associated with Kp reaching 3 during synoptic periods 2022-03-20T00:00Z-06:00Z and slight magnetospheric compression to about 8.5 Re at 2022-03-20T03:38Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-03-19T20:57Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-03-20T00:14Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/19467/1
Model Inputs:
2022-03-16T13:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-25.0, Lat.=1.0, Speed=511.0, HalfAngle=50.0, Time21.5=2022-03-16T20:38Z
2022-03-16T15:16:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-78.0, Lat.=19.0, Speed=320.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2022-03-17T02:23Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-03-20T00:14Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =16.6 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.0
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-03-17T19:53Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-03-19T12:14Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220316_203800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220316_203800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220316_203800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220316_203800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220316_203800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220316_203800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220316_203800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220316_203800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220316_203800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220316_203800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220316_203800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220316_203800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220316_203800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220316_203800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220316_203800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220316_203800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 72.37 hour(s)
Difference: -3.28 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2022-03-16T20:35Z

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